Image: Katsushika Hokusai
New Coronavirus Waves. Two Vaccines Means We’re Saved, Right?:
Now that we have two coronavirus vaccines, and possibly a third if AstraZeneca can get their data straight,
You’d think that the worst is now behind us, and that we can all relax.
But that’s just not true because carriers are still spreading the disease.
Or even people who have mild symptoms they don’t recognize and then turn into non-ironic “Karen”-style reviews of scented-candles!
Because especially for this pandemic, as the saying goes: things will still get worse before they get better…
The Short Answer:
- You would think 2 or 3 coronavirus vaccines would mean we’re saved.
- But scofflaws, asymptomatic-carriers and holiday gatherings still spread the disease.
- Virus doctors thought we might have 2 waves.
- They underestimated and we will probably have 4 or 5.
- The fatality-rate for infected is now very low.
- But the new-cases graph keeps accelerating
- The CDC just upped its fatality estimate to minimum 330,000 by January 2
- This is a simple average of about 17,500 deaths every 2 weeks.
- Accelerated CDC estimates could be 362,000 deaths by January 2
- By April, University of Washington forecasts 540,000 deaths in the US
- There will only be 35 million people vaccinated in the US by end of 2020.
- Key vaccinations may conversely slow the pandemic.
- Even vaccinated people should still practice mask-wearing & social-distancing.
- Christmas & New Year’s could make the pandemic much worse because many people refuse to do both.
- This is with nearly the whole country already a hotspot 2 weeks before Christmas.
Read on to find out the details…
→ Show/Hide Table Of Contents ←
Maybe Two Waves? How About Four Or Five:
So awhile back, we talked about how many virus-docs thought we might have a 2nd wave of this disease,
Just like the Spanish Flu Epidemic of 1918.
We now know that even according to experts like Dr. Michael Osterholm,
Those estimates were not even close and not even the pros suspected the number of daily cases & deaths would go this high.
And as of this point in time, it’s looking like we won’t just have a 2nd wave,
But we might be on wave #4 or 5, depending on where you are and how things are counted.
The only bright spot is that front-line healthcare workers have gotten way more adept at treating the illness with practices like “proning”,
And the fatality rate for those infected has gone down to about 4%.
The Graph Keeps On Accelerating:
If you look at the following graph from the CDC, it doesn’t just show cases & fatalities going up post-Thanksgiving,
It shows that trend continuing even farther, despite the fact that holiday was almost 3 weeks ago.
Image: Jan-Dec 2020 by CDC (click for larger)
What we can also imagine is that maybe cases won’t just conveniently peak on December 31st or January 1st.
-Because what are people going to do on the main holidays at the end of the year when they really get together,
Like Christmas & New Year’s?
The Vaccine Still Won’t Get Here Fast Enough:
So there is every possibility that even though the first non-test subject in the world was just vaccinated in the UK,
The vaccine is not coming soon-enough for everyone except the very old and very at-risk like front-line healthcare workers.
And since the Remdesivir treatment angle is still pretty rare, most people who contract the bug will still be in the hands of the already overstressed front-line workers,
Instead of 1 injection away from a fix once the problems in someone’s body have already started.
CDC’s Winter 2020 Coronavirus Wave Forecasts Even More Sobering:
And where this all gets really messy of course, is the new projections just released by the CDC.
According to them & their chair, Dr. Robert Redfield, by January 2nd alone, the minimum US death-toll will exceed 330,000.
To make this forecast, they looked at multiple different models and came out with the most reasonable average among them.
Worse still than that number is that the new Daily death toll will reach higher than 1% of that number, because just a few days ago, it was about 3,300/day.
New Daily Cases are already up near 230,000.
So who knows how much worse it will be before the final wave crashes???
Wide Ranges And Some Simple Math:
Well, the CDC speculates a wide range of anywhere between 12,000+ to 23,000+ new deaths by that date of January 2nd.
And that still does not mean the 4th or 5th waves of the disease are over.
Because it can take as long as 14 days for a person to show symptoms of COVID,
The number of Christmas or New Year’s-transmitted cases could peak somewhere after January 15th.
So if you do a simple non-accelerating average of the CDC’s math for January 2, you get a run-rate of 17,500 in ~2 weeks.
Another 2 weeks after that, which could be the top of Wave 5 might be another 17,500.
Which may bring the straight-line final wave, if everyone goes back to best-practices, to more than 350,000 by January 17th.
Accelerating Rates Are Still More Pessimistic:
Even Doctor Redfield says that with the CDC’s accelerating-curve estimate that could go as high as 362,000 by January 2nd,
A historical example for context tells us that this will be a higher daily death-rate than either Pearl Harbor or the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
It’s that bad; still.
More pessimistic still, a different forecasting group at the University of Washington puts the final number by April at about 540,000 just in the US.
The Speed Of Vaccination Will Still Be Slow:
This may be sadly realistic given vaccination potential from Pfizer.
Basing estimates on production & supply-chains, only 25 million people worldwide will be protected from COVID by Pfizer’s vaccine at the end of 2020,
Moderna’s projected output for the US will be even lower at only 10 Million vaccinated, and a max of 500 million in the entire world by the end of 2021.
So as stated before, most regular Americans will have to wait till as long as April 2021 to get the same help.
Even Dr. Fauci has one-upped the CDC because of this and suggested that there will continue to be a “surge upon surge” of new infections.
Giroir & A Mixed-Bag On Potential For “Incremental Herd-Immunity”:
There may be some slight benefits that could taper a few more of the cases.
As Admiral Brett Giroir, the chief of US coronavirus testing agrees those first immunizations might have a multiplicative effect,
Especially if you could find a way to vaccinate key people.
Even though vaccinated-individuals will still have to continue best-practices,
Because though-vaccinated, building up immunity to the bug can take as much as two weeks or more with 2 doses needed,
And we still don’t know how effective the vaccines will be at stopping transmission,
There may still be a glimmer of hope in the beginnings of a type of “herd immunity” as more people fail to pass on the disease,
Could Key Vaccinations Reverse The Coronavirus-Spreading-Equation?:
Because the most at-risk for death will be protected very shortly, as 630+ sites in the US will receive the vaccine by this time next week.
What might be even-better than at-risk people, would be a behavioral-profile of the “superspreader type” and asking them in to be vaccinated before they can decimate a community.
Still the idea of reversing the disease-spread-equation is strange, because so-far Sweden’s deliberate experiment in Herd Immunity failed and they’ve since considered lockdowns.
And Northern Italy’s accidental experiment in the same has not proven beneficial either, as the disease had resurgences there, too.
The Real Christmas Miracle Would Be Social Distancing Over The Holidays:
The scientific community absolutely created a miracle with vaccines 5 times faster than ever made before,
But if you can’t keep people away from each other on Memorial Day or Thanksgiving,
How are you going to keep them away from each other on Christmas or New Year’s Eve?
Especially because there are no real hotspots in isolation anymore. The disease is resurging everywhere across the country.
The only places that are low for the moment are Texas, Oregon, Washington State, and DelMarVa.
Otherwise, the whole country is a hotspot.
So as far as surviving the end waves of the coronavirus pandemic even with the vaccine imminent, Winter Is Still Coming.
References & Links:
• Source: CDC – End 2020 Coronavirus Peak
• More Coverage: CDC – Coronavirus Daily Cases Trend | CNN Brett Giroir | CDC National Heatmap | Kate Petrova Finds Anosmic Karens Complaining To Yankee Candle
Leave a Reply